We call this weekly column “Ugly Underdogs” for a reason. What we saw from Rutgers against Indiana last weekend was U-G-L-Y. The Scarlet Knights didn’t score until they were down 37-0 in the third quarter, sealing our fate. We’ll look to get back above .500 on the season and end our two-game slide by betting on arguably the worst team in FBS against one of 2026’s most pleasant surprises.

There may not be any program riding the wave quite like Northwestern right now.

Not only did the Wildcats open up their brand-new stadium with a win last Friday night, but they did it in style over a marquee opponent.

Northwestern crushed Penn State, 34-13, to run their record to 3-1 overall and 4-0 against the spread. It was one of the biggest nights in the history of a program that doesn’t get to party like that too often.

But this version of Northwestern does seem different. Instead of being labeled as plucky overachievers, the 2026 Wildcats are going out and beating teams with pizzazz.

Offensive coordinator Chip Kelly has developed immediate chemistry with quarterback Aidan Chiles, and they’ve significantly raised the ceiling of this team in a very short amount of time.

The defense is a different story for Northwestern. While they grade out alright overall, there are some red flags.

Northwestern is allowing just 16.3 points per game against FBS opponents this season, but that number is being buoyed by a stingy red-zone defense and strong numbers on third down.

Bending but not breaking is a skill, and Tim McGarigle’s unit seems to have it, but the Wildcats will need to improve on their yards per play allowed (5.6) if they’re going to really do something special this season.

Of course, these issues are not likely to cost them too much against Ball State.

The Cardinals check into this game ranked No. 134 (out of 138) in FBS by SP+, which is Bill Connelly’s catch-all power rankings. Jeff Sagarin, another immensely respected modeler in college football, has Ball State sitting at 164th in all of Division I, meaning there are about 25 FCS schools that grade out better than the Cardinals.

The offense is bleak, the defense is worse, and that all adds up to the Cardinals sitting as an 80/1 underdog on the moneyline on Saturday.

That implies that there is roughly a 1.2 percent chance they upset Northwestern. It ain’t gonna happen.

But that’s not the riddle we’re trying to solve. The question we want to answer is whether Ball State can be competent enough for 60 minutes on Saturday to lose by 37 points or fewer.

Call me crazy, but I believe they can.

Not only should Northwestern’s defensive numbers give you pause before laying 37.5 points with the Wildcats, but this is the mother of all letdown spots for the Wildcats.

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Their last two games were a six-point loss to Indiana and then the aforementioned party-starting win over Penn State. Those two results were statements. It’s not going to be easy to capture the spirit of the thing when Ball State comes to town.

And it’s not only what’s behind Northwestern, but what’s in front of them. They’ve got a trip to Michigan State, Chiles’ former school, on deck, and they don’t have another week off this season. This is the closest thing to a breather that they’ll get until December.

I’d imagine that David Braun will approach this game with plenty of caution, emphasizing staying fresh and sharp over blowing out an opponent that won’t threaten them on the scoreboard.

One of the foundational lessons in betting on college football is knowing when to sell high and buy low, and you can’t get much higher than where Northwestern is right now, and (hopefully) this is rock bottom for Ball State.

The Play: Ball State +37.5 (-110, DraftKings)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.