The Plaza Hotel will shut its doors for at least four years starting in January 2027 , with operator Fairmont Hotels and Resorts saying the 18-story Fifth Avenue landmark needs a top-to-bottom restoration of its historic facade . City Buildings inspectors found the facade unsafe in their latest review, the reason a sidewalk shed already hugs the building.

The news ricocheted far beyond Manhattan within hours.

“I woke up this morning to many, many messages of, is this true? Is this happening? Did you hear this?” Julie Estes, founder of event production firm SOP House, who has worked events at the Plaza since 2007, told The Post.

“It’s not just the most iconic hotel in New York. It’s the most iconic hotel in the world,” she added.

So who comes out ahead, and who gets stuck holding the bag? The Post breaks it down.

THE WINNERS

The Waldorf Astoria

Talk about timing. Park Avenue’s other legend reopened last year after a closure dating to 2017 and a makeover pegged at roughly $2 billion , and it now looks like the default destination for anyone who had their heart set on the Plaza.

Leslie Wilson, senior EVP and managing director at Douglas Elliman Development Marketing, sounded downright bullish.

“With The Plaza preparing to close for an extended period, we expect renewed attention on New York’s historic luxury properties with high levels of hotel services,” Wilson said, calling the Waldorf “a unique combination of residential living and world-class hospitality that few properties can replicate.”

The Pierre, the Mandarin and the old-guard ballrooms

Couples chasing white-glove, Gilded Age glamour have other places to turn, and Estes rattled off a short list.

“The Pierre is right next to the plaza and it has a wonderful history in the city,” she said. For something sleeker nearby, “the Mandarin’s really close by as well.”

She also pointed to the Rainbow Room, which she described as “another fantastic, iconic ballroom in our city that has gorgeous views,” along with Cipriani’s grand halls on 42nd Street, Wall Street, Broadway and South Street. Some of those rooms are smaller, but they carry the same pedigree, she said.

Pricing shouldn’t scare off Plaza defectors either. Venue minimums plus catering tabs land in roughly the same territory across the top tier, Estes said, because “they’re all of a similar caliber.” A typical wedding at these venues runs $250,000 to $500,000.

And Aman New York, the hushed luxury retreat inside the Crown Building a few blocks down Fifth, sits ready to absorb deep-pocketed guests who would otherwise have checked in across from Central Park.

Billionaires’ Row and Central Park South

Douglas Elliman’s Michael Passaro, who has brokered numerous deals inside The Plaza, expects buyers to drift to the supertalls along 57th Street and the towers of Central Park South.

“I don’t think many people are gonna be too thrilled about going to look at The Plaza in the near future,” he said.

Bargain hunters

Roughly 29 Plaza condos are already on the market, Passaro said, and he suspects a few more owners are quietly shopping theirs.

“I think it is going to be difficult to sell in the building over the next couple years,” he said, predicting that “buyers will be able to find deals from certain sellers.”

“Negotiability, I think it’s just gone up for anybody that’s looking possibly to purchase in the building,” he added.

Owners who can wait it out

Patience could pay off. “They’ll have a fully restored facade that protects the building’s values for decades,” Passaro said of long-haul owners, who could cash in big once a polished Plaza reopens.

“It’s a short-term inconvenience for a long-term gain,” he said.

THE LOSERS

Brides and party planners

Weddings at venues like this are often locked in six months to a year or more ahead, according to Estes, since the venue is the first thing couples nail down. That leaves plenty of 2027 celebrations suddenly homeless.

“People dream of having a wedding or an event there,” she said.

The silver lining, she said, is that the high-end vendors who work Plaza events tend to rally when a venue falls through. “They band together and they shift and really work as a team to make the change as easy and smooth as possible for the client,” Estes said.

The staff

The Hotel and Gaming Trades Council said in a statement that the 378 members working at the hotel will be able to return to their jobs at the same pay when it reopens. Four years is still a long time to wait.

Estes said the fate of longtime employees, including the hotel’s in-house CPS Events team that books every gala and wedding, is the industry’s top talking point. Staff had heard “there were some rumblings,” she said, but “I think the actual announcement of it was rather sudden.”

She offered one bright spot. “I think it’s a really great time to be looking for an opportunity or a position in the industry,” Estes said.

Condo owners and renters

The residents of the Plaza’s 181 condos  aren’t being forced out, according to Passaro, whose clients in the building checked with management and doormen. But they will lose the hotel amenities and services, plus live behind scaffolding for years.

Gone too, Passaro said, is “the vibe and the energy of such an iconic property.”

Selling won’t be easy. Passaro closed a $10.625 million sale in the building in February 2025, and the buyer relisted the apartment about a year later. Many units haven’t been updated since the condos first hit the market two decades ago, and buyers balk at gut jobs.

“It’s been a little bit of a challenge to get people excited about doing a renovation because obviously the costs have gone up drastically,” he said.

Tourists and holiday diehards

Out-of-towners who planned a pilgrimage to the hotel where Macaulay Culkin’s Kevin McCallister famously checked in on his dad’s credit card in “Home Alone 2”  have one last window. Passaro expects the hotel to be mobbed through the holidays as New Yorkers and visitors grab a farewell cocktail at the Palm Court.

As for when the doors reopen, even the brokers are hedging. Four years could easily stretch to five or six, Passaro said, adding that “nobody knows.”