Massive swing in LA mayoral race as shock new poll released with just days to go
The race for Los Angeles mayor has seen another plot twist.
Mayor Karen Bass has erased a massive polling lead from socialist Nithya Raman to tie the race at 40% support among likely voters, according to a UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll released Wednesday.
As many as 19% of voters are undecided, the poll said, with the election days away. The poll surveyed 2,197 likely city voters online between Oct. 19 and Oct. 25 and has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
It comes after a California Post-McLaughlin & Associates poll saw the socialist Raman lead Bass 46.7% to 38.8% in a head-to-head matchup, with 13.5% undecided.
Most of Bass’ renewed support comes from former Spencer Pratt voters. She gained 19 points in support from Pratt voters from this poll to a similar one in September, with 41% backing her, 45% still undecided, and 14% voting for Raman. Raman lost 2% of Pratt voters in the new poll.
Election analysts believe Pratt voters will be a key constituency for either candidate to tap into after he lost a chance at the general election in the mayoral primary.
“The Pratt voters are the biggest insertion,” Mark DiCamillo, the director of the Berkeley IGS Poll, told the LA Times.
“The question remains, since we’re looking at Pratt voters, 45% remain undecided. Will they vote?”
DiCamillo believes the latest poll is a great result for Bass, whose campaign has been on the assault against Raman.
“It’s certainly a breath of fresh air for Bass to see the race close. She’ll probably feel the campaign is having the effect she wants it to have, which is to put more focus on Raman and put Raman on the defensive,” he said.
Bass has targeted Raman mainly on her experience, notably nicking the city councilmember during their final debate.
“You are not ready for prime time,” she told Raman.
The socialist has also received extensive criticism from LA’s law enforcement leader, LAPD Chief Jim McDonnell. Raman said in a recent interview with ABC 7 that McDonnell “lost the trust of our immigrant community here in LA.”
McDonnell fired back in exclusive comments to The California Post.
“It’s easy to make a broad statement like that,” McDonnell said. “I would challenge somebody: Is that a handful of activists talking, or is that, you know, a greater feeling of discomfort in the bigger community?”
The poll also surveyed voters on their top issue in the City of Angels. Nearly half of voters, 43%, deemed homelessness their top issue. Public safety came in at 29%, with affordable housing tying for second with the same percentage of voters.
Bass won the LA mayoral primary with 34% support over Raman’s 29% and Pratt’s 25.5%. The mayor led most primary polls. Raman had flipped the script during general election season to supplant Bass as the polling leader.
Early voting has already begun in the Nov. 3 mayoral election.
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