How will Israel’s election change its relationship with America?
When Americans talk about the wider world, they picture the Great Wall of China, the Kremlin, the Eiffel Tower or Big Ben. But when an Israeli politician talks about “the world,” they are almost always referring to the few square miles between Capitol Hill and the White House. Europe can complain, and South America can flip between political camps, but what happens between the Oval Office and the Senate floor is the only thing that truly dictates the fate of the State of Israel.
The next government established in Jerusalem, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, will have to navigate the greatest challenge to US-Israel relations this century — perhaps since Israel’s founding.
What Netanyahu’s American haters fail to understand is that he is not a dictator. The man has run in 12 elections and never once seized power by force. His positions are the positions of the Israeli mainstream.
In fact, the opposition that ran against him this week was forced to adopt his security playbook, essentially attacking him for not being hawkish enough. They vowed never to establish a Palestinian state, demanded an earlier and fiercer ground invasion of Gaza and pushed to strike more Iranian energy facilities.
Netanyahu is merely the voodoo doll for the new, post-Oct. 7 Israel.
We are standing at a unique moment in time since Oct. 7: Just as fierce opposition to a Palestinian state has become an absolute consensus in Israel, the Palestinian issue has been thrust right back onto center stage globally.
The timing is especially difficult for Israel given how rapidly we are approaching the 2028 US presidential election cycle.
A train wreck between a Democratic administration — any Democratic administration — and any Israeli government is inevitable.
The real complication, however, is the growing rift between the Israeli right and the American right.
Sadly, it must be said that the average Israeli today speaks less English than in the past and has a poorer grasp of the global arena. There is a glaring lack of awareness regarding the massive diplomatic damage caused by the fringe phenomenon of violent settlers, the hostility of extreme elements toward Christians, or simply the smug assumption that under a Trump administration, Israel can do whatever it wants. All of this is causing severe harm.
You can assume this is one of the reasons the US president backed Netanyahu.
But pay close attention: Trump supported Netanyahu, not his government.
Trump wants to unfreeze the Middle East over the next two years: first, a Gaza peace plan, followed by the Abraham Accords with Saudi Arabia, and perhaps even arrangements involving Lebanon and Syria. He wants Netanyahu, but he wants him leading a broader Israeli government — one with the flexibility to maneuver without depending on right-wing firebrand Itamar Ben-Gvir.
Right now, Netanyahu is handcuffed. If he makes a move, he gets flanked from the right by both his own coalition and the opposition. A broad unity government would give both him and the American president a productive final two years. It will be fascinating to see President Trump — not exactly a unifying figure back home in the US — pull off the impossible and reconcile the right and left in Israel.
Neither side in Israel’s election secured an absolute majority. Ironically, it’s this fact — combined with the rise of Arab parties in the Knesset that refuse to designate Hamas as a terror organization — that paves the way for a government reflecting the true Israeli majority, leaving the radical fringes out in the cold.
With this kind of coalition, real progress could be made in Gaza alongside a Peace Council, proving once and for all that the road to peace doesn’t run through the corrupt Palestinian Authority and a biased United Nations. In Syria, symbolic concessions could lay the groundwork for a non-belligerency pact. In Lebanon, the complete dismantling of Hezbollah could be finalized. And in Saudi Arabia, true normalization.
Israeli voters have just handed America a rare opportunity to hit the reset button on US-Israel relations in a soft, amicable way — before we careen into a disastrous head-on collision that would only serve the enemies of the West.
Amit Segal is chief political commentator on Israel’s Channel 12 News.