Dem pollster dishes on which California election day races will be called early — and which may take days

Californians eager to know the state’s next governor will have their answer almost immediately Tuesday night — but voters waiting to see who wins the Los Angeles mayor’s race, San Francisco’s congressional race and the billionaire tax fight may be waiting for days, according to a top Democratic pollster.

Paul Mitchell, the mapmaker for California’s Proposition 50 gerrymandering effort last year to combat President Trump and Republicans in other states, told The California Post that Democrat Xavier Becerra will be declared the winner over republican Steve Hilton in the governor’s race in nanoseconds.

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra votes during the U.S. midterm elections in Sacramento, Calif., Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026. REUTERS
California Republican gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton, right, speaks during a campaign event on Monday, Nov. 2, 2026, in Compton, Calif. AP Photo/William Liang

“I’m joking, but it’s going to be instant,” said Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc.

Meanwhile, Mitchell said that several House races — as well as the Los Angeles mayor’s race and the proposed billionaire tax — could take longer to sort out as later returns test whether early leads can hold.

Mitchell said polling in the governor’s race closely tracked last year’s vote on Prop. 50, which was projected to pass shortly after polls closed. He expects the governor’s race to break along similar partisan lines.

Some of the toughest calls, however, could come where both candidates are Democrats.

The San Francisco congressional contest between state Sen. Scott Wiener and Supervisor Connie Chan for Rep. Nancy Pelosi’s seat could go unresolved until Friday, Mitchell said. So could the Los Angeles congressional race between Rep. Jimmy Gomez and Angela Gonzales-Torres.

Former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi smiles during a rally with members of the Democratic Party in San Francisco, Friday, Oct. 23, 2026. AP Photo/Heather Diehl
California State Sen. Scott Wiener speaks during the Bloomberg Tech conference in San Francisco, Thursday, June 4, 2026. Bloomberg via Getty Images

Mitchell estimated Gomez might need a four-point lead Tuesday night to hold on. In Sacramento, he put that cushion at six points for Democratic Rep. Doris Matsui against far-left City Councilmember Mai Vang.

“That’s going to shift over time and that’s going to be super close,” Mitchell said of the Sacramento race.


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In the Central Valley, Mitchell said a gap in reporting from Kings County could leave too many ballots outstanding to call the race between Republican Rep. David Valadao and progressive Democrat Randy Villegas.

Randy Villegas, center, speaks with Sen. Alex Padilla, right, and Sen. Adam Schiff during a canvass launch on Monday, Nov. 2, 2026, in Bakersfield, Calif. Getty Images

Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass knows what it’s like to trail on election night and win after overtaking Rick Caruso as ballots were counted for more than a week in 2022. But this time, Mitchell said, the late count could help her lefty challenger City Councilmember Nithya Raman.

“Karen Bass needs to be up by eight points or something like that,” Mitchell said, estimating the early cushion she could need to fend off younger voters casting late ballots in favor of Raman.

Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass rallies supporters on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, in Los Angeles. AP Photo/Ethan Swope
Los Angeles mayoral candidate Nithya Raman smiles after casting her ballot at Silverlake Community Church in Los Angeles on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026. REUTERS

Mitchell expects later returns to widen the deficit for Prop. 39, the Republican-led voter ID measure. But he sees a closer fight over Prop. 40, the proposed billionaire tax advanced by Service Employees International Union-United Healthcare Workers West (SEIU-UHW) and its controversial president Dave Regan. Google co-founder Sergey Brin poured more than $100 million of his own fortune into the fight to defeat the wealth tax.

Dave Regan, SEIU-UHW president, speaks during a “Yes on 40 for Ballots Over Billionaires” rally in San Francisco, California, Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026. Bloomberg via Getty Images
Sergey Brin arrives for the Met Gala celebrating “Costume Art” at The Metropolitan Museum of Art on Monday, May 4, 2026, in New York. Getty Images

Mitchell figures opponents of the billionaire tax could need a 53% to 47% lead Tuesday night because he expects later returns to favor the measure.

Later returns will likely lean Democratic statewide, Mitchell said, but the pattern can flip in conservative regions like Placer and Riverside counties, where there are more “MAGA” supporters who distrust voting by mail and tend to cast ballots late.

In Los Angeles and Alameda counties, Mitchell said, younger voters could give progressive candidates and causes a lift as more ballots are counted.

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