Like everyone else, I’ll be watching the biggest show on Election Night: When the dust settles, will Republicans still control the United States Senate?

But So, Does It Matter? is mostly about California politics, and we’ve got plenty of drama of our own.

Hundreds of contests will be decided here Tuesday. I couldn’t begin to cover them all. Some will be nail-biters; others won’t be close, but the margins will still tell us something.

These aren’t necessarily the closest or even the most important contests. They’re the ones I’ll watch especially closely. And because this is California, I’m counting on surprises.

Can Some Republicans Survive California’s New Congressional Map?

Democrats drew Proposition 50’s congressional map to knock more Republicans out of office. Tuesday we’ll see how well it worked.

In CD 6, Republican-turned-independent Kevin Kiley faces Democrat Richard Pan. Can Kiley pull off an upset without the Republican label? That’s an experiment worth watching.

In the Central Valley, Republican David Valadao (CD 22) faces Democrat Randy Villegas, while Democrat Adam Gray (CD 13) defends his seat against Republican Kevin Lincoln. In San Diego County, Republican Jim Desmond and Democrat Marni von Wilpert (CD 48) are vying to succeed retiring Republican Darrell Issa.

Then there’s CD 40: Republican incumbents Young Kim and Ken Calvert fighting over the same seat. Thanks to redistricting and California’s top-two primary system, two sitting Republicans are trying to put each other out of work.

Is the Democratic Establishment Losing Its Grip?

Three longtime Democratic congressmen face challenges from their own party.

Mike Thompson (CD 4) faces Eric Jones; Doris Matsui (CD 7) faces Mai Vang; and Jimmy Gomez (CD 34) faces Angela Gonzales-Torres. All three challengers want to send an incumbent packing, though they’re hardly ideological clones.

Meanwhile, Scott Wiener and Connie Chan are battling in San Francisco’s CD 11 to succeed Nancy Pelosi. Both are Democrats, but they offer different visions of where the party should go.

If the old guard is on its way out, who’s moving in?

What Will the Statewide Candidate Results Tell Us?

I don’t expect Steve Hilton to beat Xavier Becerra for governor. What I want to know is whether Hilton can crack 40%.

As I wrote about the latest Berkeley IGS poll, Hilton has rallied Republican voters, but President Trump’s dismal popularity in California doesn’t help. A September survey found just 27% statewide approval for Trump, including 21% among independent and other-party voters. Hilton needs those voters.

Then there’s Insurance Commissioner: DSA-aligned Jane Kim versus Ben Allen, an extremely liberal Democrat who, in my estimation, falls somewhere between Bernie Sanders and Gavin Newsom.

I’ve explained why neither gets my vote. I’m leaving that race blank.

The Statewide Ballot Measure Battles

My voter guide covers all 14 propositions. A few are especially interesting.

Proposition 3 would make California’s supposedly temporary higher income taxes permanent. The California Teachers Association is “all in” to extend this highest income tax bracket…

Voter ID enjoys broad public support nationally, but will that translate into a victory in deep-blue California? This is a particularly interesting test of whether an election-integrity measure can win support beyond the Republican base, with Democrats running a “Reject Trump” campaign against it. Proposition 39 would require voter identification and citizenship verification.

Then there’s Proposition 40, the billionaire wealth tax. High-profile billionaires have poured enormous sums into defeating it. Google co-founder Sergey Brin spearheaded the effort to put two rival measures, Propositions 41 and 42, on the ballot. Here’s the kicker: If either passes with more yes votes than Proposition 40, it could prevent the wealth tax from taking effect—even if Proposition 40 passes. That’s an expensive insurance policy.

Proposition 43 would restore the two-thirds requirement for local special taxes, closing a loophole that undermined Proposition 13.

Proposition 45 would reform environmental review requirements. Will voters connect California’s regulatory obstacles with the cost of housing and infrastructure?

Here are the latest Opinion stories on the 2026 election:

Regional Ballot Measures: More Taxes or Government Reform?

The Bay Area’s Measure RTM proposes a 14-year regional sales-tax increase for transit agencies. Will voters give these troubled systems more money?

San Diego County offers two different measures. Measure A is a thinly disguised attempt to gut term limits, wrapping accountability reforms around a third term for the supervisors who put it on the ballot. Measure B proposes a countywide sales-tax increase.

In San Francisco, Proposition F is part of Mayor Daniel Lurie’s effort to reform city government.

Some politicians want more money. Others are asking to change the machinery of government. We’ll see which arguments sell.

Will Los Angeles Take Another Sharp Turn to the Left?

I’ve called Karen Bass the worst mayor in Los Angeles history. Yet, as I wrote after watching the mayoral debate, if I lived in LA, I couldn’t vote for either candidate. Bass has been a disaster. Replacing her with democratic socialist Nithya Raman certainly would not make things better.

The City Attorney race offers another stark choice. Veteran prosecutor John McKinney, endorsed by LA County District Attorney Nathan Hochman and the police union, represents a more traditional law-and-order approach. His opponent, democratic socialist Marissa Roy, has the backing of organized labor and progressive groups.

Imagine Raman and Roy winning together. Two powerful city offices would go to candidates aligned with the socialist left. In a city already wrestling with crime, homelessness and fiscal trouble, that’s quite an experiment. But given the abject failures of Bass, maybe voters would prefer to try anything different…

Who Will Control Local Government in Orange County and San Francisco?

I’m watching four supervisorial contests, two in each county.

In Orange County, Republican Tim Shaw faces Democrat Connor Traut in District 4. In District 5, Republican Diane Dixon challenges incumbent Democrat Katrina Foley. Together, these races could decide whether Republicans regain control of the Board of Supervisors.

San Francisco has two open seats that could shift the board’s ideological balance. Mayor Daniel Lurie backs Theo Ellington in District 10, where DJ Brookter and J.R. Eppler are also running.

In District 8, Lurie withdrew his endorsement of Manny Yekutiel, who suspended his campaign but remains on the ballot. Gary McCoy, Darshini Patel and Michael Nguyen are also running.

Will Lurie get a board more willing to work with him, or will progressives gain ground? Different politics from Orange County, but the stakes are real in both places.

Can Republicans Hold Their 2024 Legislative Gains?

Republicans picked up legislative seats in 2024. This year looks tougher, and Democrats would love to take those seats back.

Plenty of competitive Assembly and Senate contests, too many to give each its due here. I’m watching the total: Can Republicans hold what they gained, or will Democrats restore their overwhelming advantage in Sacramento? I’m keeping a close eye on AD 72 where Republican Gracey Van Der Mark and Democrat (and nutball) Chris Kluwe are in a battle in coastal California. Freshmen GOP Assemblymembers Hoover, Castillo, and Gonzalez are all under heavy bombardment. And can the GOP hold the seat of retiring Senator Brian Jones, with Kristi Bruce-Lane? This is a tough cycle for Republicans nationally. So these folks could all get washed out to sea. We’ll know soon enough.

So, Does It Matter?

Election Night isn’t just about who wins. The margins, upsets, and close calls can tell us where California is going.

Does the Democratic Party move further left? Can Republicans show a political pulse in a state where they haven’t won a statewide race in two decades? Will taxpayers complaining about high taxes and dysfunctional government vote to restrain either one?

And will any of this send a message to the political establishment that’s run California for so long?

We’ll get some answers Tuesday night. Maybe even a surprise or two.

And, it’s worth saying, that the title of this column may be a bit too rosy about seeing results tonight. If any of these contests are remotely close, we might not know results until much closer to Thanksgiving… Sigh.

Jon Fleischman, a longtime strategist in California politics, writes at SoDoesItMatter.com.

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