College football Week 10 predictions: Best bets, picks against the spread
The one upside of the College Football Playoff’s expansion to a 24-team field is the subsequent defanging of a committee guided by a lack of transparency, consistency and logic.
This is the group that dropped TCU from No. 3 to No. 6 in 2014’s final rankings after a 52-point win. It excluded undefeated Florida State from a playoff because its quarterback was injured.
And last season, it duped Notre Dame, which sat above Miami for five straight weeks then lost the final playoff spot to the Hurricanes after both teams were on a bye.
On Tuesday, the committee struck again, placing Notre Dame at No. 11 in the initial rankings despite the Irish being No. 4 in the AP Poll and holding a near-identical résumé to Indiana, which is No. 4 in the playoff rankings.
“They don’t have that signature win right now,” said College Football Playoff committee chairman Hunter Yurachek.
Saturday is Notre Dame’s only remaining opportunity against a ranked team — No. 1 Miami.
More than three decades removed from the “Catholics vs. Convicts” win that propelled them to their most recent national title, the Irish will host another top-ranked team from Miami in a game that could make them the national title favorite or kick them to the wrong side of the playoff bubble.
Notre Dame is the rightful favorite, playing at home and in the cold, led by CJ Carr (18 passing touchdowns, one interception), facing the nation’s 128th-ranked pass defense.
The Hurricanes have remained unbeaten behind the nation’s highest-scoring offense, especially with star receiver Malachi Toney headed for surgery and has largely feasted on subpar defenses, having faced nothing resembling the top-ranked Irish unit.
Notre Dame (-6.5) will not blow its chance to avenge last year’s season-opening loss at Miami, sticking it to the committee that continues to pick fights with them.
The Irish will get their signature win.
Virginia Tech (+6) over SMU
The balanced Hokies are capable of pulling the upset coming off a bye. James Franklin is a missed 36-yard field goal and a last-minute touchdown away from being undefeated in Blacksburg.
ILLINOIS (+4.5) over Nebraska
The Cornhuskers head east on a three-game losing streak, owning just two Big Ten wins over the only teams (Maryland, Michigan State) without a conference win. The Illini have won three straight, holding a 22-11 record against the spread as underdogs under Bret Bielema.
BYU (+5.5) over UTAH
The unbeaten Utes are the best bet to win the Big 12 , but they haven’t proven much against the fourth-easiest schedule among power conference teams. The Cougars have won the Holy War in back-to-back years and could get a huge boost with the potential return of star running back LJ Martin, last season’s Big 12 Player of the Year.
MINNESOTA (+5.5) over UCLA
I’ve been waiting for the Bruins to return to earth, picking against them — and losing — in all three games since Nico Iamaleava suffered a season-ending injury. Even if the Gophers weren’t 6-2-1 as home dogs in the past three seasons, I wouldn’t fold now. I’m pot committed.
Texas (-2.5) over MISSOURI
It won’t be fun to put your faith in Arch Manning on the road. But his track record — and supporting cast — is still better than the hosts, who have won just one of their past 11 games against ranked opponents.
SOUTH CAROLINA (-7) over Texas A&M
The Aggies are 0-4 against ranked teams this season, losing three road games by a total of 61 points. The SEC’s 13th-ranked offense isn’t keeping pace with dual-threat LaNorris Sellers, who has run for 192 yards and four touchdowns in the past two games.
OHIO STATE (-7.5) over Oregon
The Buckeyes were bumped out of the AP top 10 for the first time in five years, then listed as the first team out in the first set of playoff rankings. Expect a bounce back at home from the title contender that is far more equipped to win a battle of backup quarterbacks and has never lost consecutive regular-season games under Ryan Day.
LSU (-5.5) over Alabama
The Tigers have won just two of the past 15 meetings against their rival, but this is the first time that LSU has entered as the favorite in 19 years, boasting the SEC’s top-ranked offense and defense. Alabama suffered both of its losses against top 20 defenses — and LSU is the best the Tide have seen yet.
HOUSTON (-10.5) over Cincinnati
The Bearcats will always have their upset of Texas Tech. Surrounding that outlier are three losses by a total of 54 points, courtesy of the nation’s 133rd-ranked defense.
Kentucky (+6.5) over TENNESSEE
It is no surprise that the first-place Wildcats are still being overlooked, but it is strange to see the Vols — who are 2-7 as a home favorite since the start of last season — be given so much respect while being led by a freshman quarterback (George MacIntyre) who has thrown one touchdown and three interceptions as a starter. Tennessee ranks among the top three teams in the nation in sack percentage. Kentucky already beat the other two (LSU, Oklahoma).
Iowa (+2.5) over NORTHWESTERN
The Wildcats won’t generate much from their standard 40-plus rushing attempts against the nation’s third-ranked run defense, which allows 2.5 yards per carry. The Hawkeyes — who already own outright upsets at Michigan and Washington — are 6-1-1 against the spread as an underdog since the start of last season.
Georgia (-3.5) over OLE MISS
The pregame headlines will focus on the brilliance of Trinidad Chambliss — tied for the third-most interceptions (8) in the nation this season — against Georgia in the playoff, but Gunnar Stockton was just as effective in the season split, completing over 70 percent of his passes, with eight total touchdowns and no interceptions. The Bulldogs have covered four of their past five road games.
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Oklahoma (+6) over FLORIDA
The Gators won their first four games by scoring 214 points against defenses with an average defensive ranking of 105th in the nation. They are 1-3 since then, and averaging less than 18 points per game, entering a matchup against the Sooners’ top 20 defense.
West Virginia (+16.5) over TEXAS TECH
The Mountaineers — who average nearly 34 points per game — are powered by the nation’s fourth-ranked ground game, but Michael Hawkins Jr. (27 total touchdowns, two interceptions) can air it out if necessary. The West Virginia quarterback threw for 464 yards and three touchdowns in a recent win against Cincinnati, exploiting the nation’s 135th-ranked pass defense. Texas Tech is one of only two teams in the country allowing more than 300 passing yards per game.
Best bets: Ohio State, Iowa, West Virginia
This season: 73-61-1 (19-8 best bets)