5 statistical reasons the Dodgers’ slump raises real World Series concerns

The Dodgers continue to say they aren’t concerned about their ongoing, midseason slump.

But as losers of eight of their last nine games, and 15 of 24 overall, the external alarm bells are getting uncomfortably loud.

No longer is this just one bad week. No longer can the team’s form be written off as the kind of routine lull that is inevitable in a 162-game season.

Potentially fatal flaws have been exposed. Cracks in the two-time defending champions’ armor are becoming clear.

As the team returns home this week –– hoping that Tarik Skubal’s Dodger Stadium debut and Blake Snell’s activation from the injured list can help turn the tide –– here are five stats that epitomize the team’s struggles, and pose real threats to their chances of winning a third-straight World Series title.

Los Angeles Dodgers base runner Freddie Freeman scores in the sixth inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on Sunday, August 9, 2026, in Phoenix, Arizona. (This asset –including all text, audio and imagery –is provided by Imagn Images. Reuters Connect ha) IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

One

As in, the number of regular starting position players the team has been missing during this stretch.

Above all else, the fact that a (mostly) healthy Dodgers lineup has ranked bottom-10 in the majors in both runs and OPS not only during this losing streak, but going all the way back to the start of July, is alarming.

Will Smith’s absence hasn’t been helpful. But an offense spearheaded by Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Kyle Tucker, Mookie Betts and so many other All-Stars and impact bats should be immune to extended slumps like this.

Instead, they are enduring one for the second time this year (remember how familiar things felt in late April and early May). And while they’ll undoubtedly snap out of it at some point, it’s a reminder that back weeks –– or months –– are still possible for this group.

And the threat of it happening again in October stands as the biggest worry for the team’s three-peat hopes.

.293

A hat tip to The Athletic’s Eno Sarris for first highlighting this last week: The Dodgers have been increasingly hounded by fastballs from opposing pitching staffs this year, and are doing little as an offense to counteract the strategy.

In April and May, the club saw the second-lowest rate of four-seamers and sinkers; and, to be fair, did damage off them then, ranking first among MLB teams against those pitches during that span in batting average (.285) and slugging percentage (.502).

Since then, though, opposing pitchers have gone away from testing them with soft stuff, and simply begun to attack with heaters, throwing the Dodgers more four-seamers and sinkers than any other club since the beginning of July.

In that time, the Dodgers have simply failed to punish such pitches, owning the fourth-worst batting average (.231), third-worst slugging percentage (.366) and –– most glaringly –– worst-ranked mark in MLB’s all-encompassing wOBA stat (.293).

The biggest individual culprits for that drop-off: Max Muncy, Tommy Edman and Betts (who are all hitting under .200 against the fastball since the start of July), plus Andy Pages and Freeman (who are slugging under .400 against the pitch over that span).

Add it all up, and the Dodgers have been MLB’s worst fastball-hitting team for more than a month. And now that opponents have figured that out, it has neutralized perhaps the Dodgers’ biggest strength as an offense along the way.

Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani during a game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona, on Sunday, August 9, 2026. (This asset –including all text, audio and imagery –is provided by Imagn Images. Reuters Connect ha) IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

2.69

That’s the number of walks-per-nine-innings opposing starting pitchers have posted against the Dodgers since the start of July. 

It’s a stark drop from the first three months of the year, when opposing starters had a 4.01 BB/9 against the Dodgers.

Why is that important? Because, beyond the obvious (breaking: drawing more walks is good), it’s a sign that the Dodgers aren’t doing what they typically do best: Work tough at-bats, drive up pitch counts and get into other teams’ bullpens earlier in games.

Starters are now getting deeper into games (4.95 innings-per-start through June, 5.22 innings-per-start since then). Opponents have been able to better match up with their top relievers later in games. And until the Dodgers can start doing more damage against their fastball-heavy approach, it has created a self-fulfilling cycle that figures to continue.

Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Edwin Diaz reacts after giving up a two run walk off home run by Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Ryan Waldschmidt (not pictured) in the ninth inning at Chase Field IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

4.95

While the offense has scuffled during the team’s slump, its pitching staff –– and bullpen, in particular –– has also been to blame of late.

Since the start of the club’s current 9-15 slide, Dodgers relievers have a 4.95 ERA, the fifth-worst mark in the majors in that time.

It has offered a reminder that the team’s relief unit, as currently constructed, is full of holes, especially with closer Edwin Díaz struggling since returning from the injured list.

Granted, come October, the group is expected to look vastly different. The team will eventually shift some of its excess starters to the bullpen. It’s why, despite the bullpen’s extended scuffles, the front office didn’t make any significant reliever acquisitions before the trade deadline.

But even that plan is no longer looking foolproof. One such late-season bullpen candidate, Emmet Sheehan, was optioned to the minors last week amid season-long delivery issues. Another, Justin Wrobleski, is mired in his worst stretch of what had previously been an All-Star campaign.

There will be other alternatives, starting with the recently resurgent Roki Sasaki. The team’s stacked rotation should provide plenty of postseason innings, as well.

Still, if the offense isn’t going to score, the Dodgers are going to find themselves in more close games that will create high-leverage spots for the bullpen. And lately, that has been a recipe for disaster. 

1.0

Los Angeles Dodgers manager Dave Roberts looks out to the field before the game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona, on Saturday, August 8, 2026. (This asset – including all text, audio and imagery – is provided by Imagn Images. Reuters Connec) IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Entering Monday, that is how many games the Dodgers trailed the Atlanta Braves by for a top-two National League playoff seed.

This can be spun positively: Even after the team’s recent slump, they only face a minimal deficit for one of the league’s two all-important first-round byes.

On the other hand, it also means that the Dodgers are no longer in position to coast down the stretch, unable to prioritize rest and workload management in the same way they could when they had a six-game lead for a top-two seed just a month ago.

Playing meaningful late-season games can be an advantage, of course. Having to hold off the Padres in the NL West the last two years helped the Dodgers tap into a heightened level of intensity entering October.

However, the Dodgers also have the league’s oldest lineup, and a pitching staff that has a lot of mileage and recent injuries to account for.

Being able to take it relatively easy in the run-up to this year’s postseason might not have been a bad thing. Now, the team doesn’t have that luxury, and will have to hope its roster can hold up through what is now shaping up to be three-straight months of meaningful baseball.

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *